ES is still forming triangles and megaphones within triangles. It’s likely forming a largish continuation triangle that will break out downwards to at least 2080 and probably 2050.
The purple scenario represents a triangle breakout to 2184 to be followed by a move to the bottom of the orange flat-topped megaphone. In that scenario, ES would be a strong favorite to return to 2184 after the next trip to the formation bottom, but the formation could break out in either direction.
If ES breaks down through 2050 in either scenario, it’s going for a retest of the January/February lows.