10-year T-Note rates have reached the point in their almost 3-decade price channel (gray on chart) where they have to be at least half way through a long-term bottoming formation.
The formation could still be almost anything at this point. The 10-year rate could be in the head of an inverse head and shoulders, or halfway through a megaphone, or in the middle of a triangle, or about to head down into the final wave of a falling wedge.
The falling wedge scenario (navy blue on chart) would have to turn the 10-year rate down at once to take it down to a final lower low. In the megaphone scenario (green or purple scenarios), rates would turn up immediately and take out the late 2009 high before reversing.