ES has a confirmed megaphone on its chart (blue). It formed across the top of the triangle ES began forming in February. A megaphone across the top of a potential topping triangle usually breaks out downwards, and so does the triangle.
The blue megaphone is complete except for a complete topping formation at or across VWAP before breakout downwards, and ES seems to be forming a head and shoulders with a neckline at that VWAP. Right now ES appears to be in a falling megaphone (orange on chart) that is likely to take the price back to that neckline.
ES could also abort the falling megaphone at roughly 2110. A breakout through the formation top should mean a run to the megaphone top at 2150ish (pink scenario). That would simply complete a manic 5th wave on the blue megaphone. You’d then expect a topping formation at or across the top, followed by a plunge to the megaphone bottom.
But if ES puts in a lower low for the orange falling megaphone, it will next be heading into the right shoulder of the potential H&S. Because of the falling megaphone, that should be a doozy of a right shoulder–definitely a Sornette melt-up. Plus, any H&S right shoulder can fail, which in this case would mean the price would continue to the blue megaphone top.
If ES makes it back to the 2080-2090 here, and completes the right shoulder without putting in a new high, and then breaks out through the H&S neckline, the blue megaphone is legal for a breakout downwards, which would mean The Top could be in.