ES still has a mandatory retrace requirement at 2100 and a CBOE Equities Put-Call Ratio surge through its top Bollinger Band to work off with a rally.
ES is also trying to recross its potential H&S neckline upwards. The recross, assuming it continues, should send bears scurrying for cover.
If instead of a rally we see a triangle form across that neckline, it would be bearish. That triangle would override all other set-ups on the chart and have odds of 90%+ of breaking out downwards.
However, we’re unlikely to see a triangle form here. Assuming no triangle, there’s now a potential complex H&S on the 60-minute chart. If ES puts in a right shoulder with a top at 2100ish, that H&S is likely to play out (blue scenario).
But there’s also a huge potential Sornette melt-up set-up on the 60-minute chart (purple scenario). An upwards breakout from the navy blue megaphone, especially with a double bobble as drawn, would usually mean a big melt-up.
ES could also return to the 2063 or 2080 area and start a new megaphone there to work the price back to 2100. A new megaphone at 2063 or 2080 would likely mean a continuation of the sideways price action we’ve seen for the past couple of months.