The SPY put-call ratio fell today almost to its 20 dma, and so did the CPCE. The CPCE fell from a spike through its top Bollinger Band on Monday.
But the CPCI spiked from its lower Bollinger Band up through the upper band today. This is surprising heading into the first day of the new quarter.
SPY put volume rose by 7% today on a big rise in open interest. SPY call volume rose by 47%.
Together, the ratios are bearish. The only question is whether the bearishness gets blown in one swoon to the bottom of the SPY 2-year+ rising wedge (possibly as the head of an inverse head and shoulders) or whether the selling is sustained and disciplined enough to complete the ES triangle and then break down. That would be a must-short for a potential drop to 1850 or a bit below, and would be another step in setting up a potential major top.
You often see these CPCI surges a little early before the right shoulder of an important head and shoulders turns. The potential triangle on the ES chart is in the right shoulder position of a potential head and shoulders.