On May 16 I posted that the impending ascending triangle breakout on the ES daily chart was likely to be a fake-out.
Last Tuesday the SPX reentered the formation. On Wednesday, the SPX retested the formation top. On Friday the SPX closed inside the triangle for the day and for the week. The SPX had roamed outside of the formation for five days, including the breakout day.
Once a breakout on an ascending triangle fails, the target becomes the formation low. At the moment, that’s at roughly the level of the 200 dma.
A retrace to the formation low would put a potential H&S on the chart. The right shoulder minimum retrace target would be ES 2080.