Triangle Across VWAP Confirmed

ES has Confirmed a Triangle (Red) Across the Silver Megaphone VWAP

ES has Confirmed a Triangle (Red) Across the Silver Megaphone VWAP

A dangerous triangle (red on chart) has confirmed across VWAP of the silver megaphone.  A downwards breakout from this triangle would set up a legal downwards breakout from the megaphone for a retest of the January/February lows.

An upwards breakout could go straight for a new all-time high and the silver megaphone top, but ES is more likely to get bogged down at the 2184 top of the potential flat-topped megaphone on the chart.  A reversal there would set up a retest of roughly 2080 before another attempt at a breakout through 2184.

Stuck at VWAP

ES is Again Stuck at the Silver Megaphone VWAP

ES is Again Stuck at the Silver Megaphone VWAP

ES is stuck once more at the silver megaphone VWAP.  It’s trying to work its way back to 2184 to fail at another breakout attempt through that level before a collapse back to the bottom of the megaphone and one last attempt to break out upwards.

Here’s a close-up on the 5-minute chart of the falling megaphone off last Thursday’s high, the Sornette formation ES broke out of, the pop after, and an attempt to set up a price channel or rising megaphone now to work the price back up to 2184.

Rising Megaphone

ES is Trying to Set Up a Price Channel or Rising Megaphone (Red) on the 5-Minute Chart

But ES has retraced enough of the navy blue falling megaphone to just poop out here and retest Tuesday’s low (pink scenario).  In that case, a triangle or megaphone could be forming across the silver megaphone VWAP before a breakout downwards from the megaphone.

A genuine upwards breakout through 2184 would be a breakout into a melt-up set-up that could go hundreds of points.  A breakdown through 2080 would be a set-up for a crash to roughly the January/February lows.

ES is doing everything it can to avoid making that decision.

ES Flat-Topped Megaphone is an Excellent Way to Stall

ES May Be Putting in a Tiny Sornette Melt-Up Set-Up Across 2150 Before a Shot to 2184

ES May Be Putting in a Tiny Sornette Melt-Up Set-Up Across 2150 Before a Shot to 2184

ES has been bobbling around 2150 overnight. It’s drawn a potential price channel on the chart that will confirm if it heads up over 2158. It’s also got a potential Sornette melt-up set-up if it can head down from right here to a little below 2147 and then break out upwards past 2158.

Or ES could just form a megaphone across 2150 and stay here indefinitely.

Odds are high that we are going to see the top of the blue flat-topped megaphone again at 2184 and that we’re going to see 2080 again before ES makes a decision on breakout direction.

And upwards breakout from the blue flat-topped megaphone is a set-up for a melt-up unless the breakout fails fast.

A downwards breakout from the blue flat-topped megaphone is a set-up for a crash to roughly the January/February lows.

ES Short-Term Retrace Targets

Falling Megaphone

ES is Likely to See 2170 Again One Way or Another

ES reached its mandatory retrace target for the orange rising megaphone on the 5-minute chart yesterday.

It formed the red falling megaphone in the course of that retrace and if it can make a lower low straight from here it will have confirmed the blue falling megaphone.  Either way, ES is likely to see 2170 again.

ES is still dealing with a flat-topped megaphone within a symmetrical megaphone on the 60-minute chart.  Here’s the chart from yesterday:

ES is Still Trying to Break Out Through 2184 but Could Set Up a Crash at Any Time

ES is Still Trying to Break Out Through 2184 but Could Set Up a Crash at Any Time

The purple scenario would trigger a melt-up set-up on the daily chart.  The target depends on exactly what happens before the breakout to a new all-time high.

Double Bobble Upwards Breakout as a Rising Wedge (Pink Scenario), Price Channel (Green Scenario) or Rising Megaphone (Purple Scenario)

Double Bobble Upwards Breakout as a Rising Wedge (Pink Scenario), Price Channel (Green Scenario) or Rising Megaphone (Purple Scenario)