QQQ Update

QQQ is Back Inside Its Blue Rising Megaphone Heading Back Down to Retest Its Bottom

QQQ is Back Inside Its Blue Rising Megaphone Heading Back Down to Retest Its Bottom

NQ is back inside its blue rising megaphone heading back down to the formation bottom for a retest.  Essentially NQ and QQQ are trying to put in a top before a dip as we head into a long holiday weekend.  That makes the price action goofy.

If QQQ breaks through the blue rising megaphone bottom again, it will be completing a little head and shoulders B wave on the red megaphone VWAP.  It can break out of that H&S for a move to 120ish to retest the breakout through the 2000 high.  There’s another strong target at roughly 100, and if QQQ can break out through 100 the next target is at roughly 70.

If QQQ/NQ break through that bottom again, don’t be surprised if NQ triangles at the red megaphone VWAP through the holiday weekend.

QQQ could also get stuck in its red megaphone long enough to make a new all-time high within it (pink scenario).

And if the blue rising megaphone bottom holds on this retest, QQQ could head straight up to new all-time highs in a rising megaphone extension of the blue rising megaphone (purple scenario).

The faster QQQ tops here, the more likely it is to reverse in the 100-120 area for a huge move up.  The longer it spends topping up here and the more extended the topping pattern gets, the more likely it is to head down into a deeper, longer-lasting correction.

NQ Rising Megaphone Breakout

QQQ Broke Through its Rising Megaphone Bottom Yesterday - NQ is Retesting the Bottom Now

QQQ Broke Through its Rising Megaphone Bottom Yesterday – NQ is Retesting the Bottom at the Open

QQQ broke through its rising megaphone (blue) bottom yesterday and NQ is retesting that bottom now. If QQQ reenters the blue rising megaphone, it’s putting a rising megaphone top on it (purple scenario).

But we have a Neely short set-up from the big red candle on June 9, so there’s a good chance QQQ continues down from this retest.  The red megaphone will likely mean a retest of VWAP from roughly the level of the May 18 low.  From there we should be watching for crash set-ups back to at least a retest of the breakout through the year-2000 high.

QQQ also has a megaphone VWAP to retest at roughly 100, but if the market’s heading into a blow-off move, it likely won’t get all the way there.

If QQQ breaks out through the megaphone VWAP at roughly 100, it’s going for the megaphone bottom at roughly 70.  I’ll post long-term charts after we see what happens with this retest of the blue rising megaphone bottom.

DX Potential Price Channel

DX Price Channel

DX Needs a New Low within the Orange Price Channel to Confirm the Channel

DX needs a new low within the orange price channel to confirm the channel. If the channel confirms, it will be in the critical decision wave for starting a bottom vs. setting up a melt-down to the red megaphone bottom.

Roughly 2/3 to 3/4 of the time, the price would start a channel bottom.  That would put a bottom at roughly the red megaphone VWAP–the perfect place to start a new megaphone if the dollar is in a prolonged sideways move.

If instead the dollar breaks the orange price channel top by a little bit then puts in a new low, it will be forming a falling megaphone likely to bottom at the red megaphone VWAP.

The dollar is moving sideways across VWAP of a multi-decade megaphone.  It is likely to hang around this level for a looooong time.