Oil Price Channel

Oil is Working its Way Neatly Down the Blue Price Channel

Oil is Working its Way Neatly Down the Blue Price Channel

Oil is working its way neatly down the blue price channel. It’s either maxing out the channel waves before starting a megaphone bottom (green scenario) or its in the middle of a falling wedge (purple) or falling megaphone (orange) bottom already.

We’ll know which it is by when it first breaks the channel top.

Oil's Next Move Could Be to the Orange Megaphone Top or Oil Could Return to VWAP at 50 and Start a New Megaphone There

Oil’s Next Move Could Be to the Orange Megaphone Top or Oil Could Return to VWAP at 50 and Start a New Megaphone There

Oil has already done its job of confirming the orange megaphone by taking out the August 2, 2016 low.  It’s next move could go all the way for the orange megaphone top.  But oil could also return to the orange megaphone VWAP at 50 and start a new megaphone there.

If oil is going to go for the orange megaphone top, it will likely attempt a megaphone across 50 that breaks out in a Sornette melt-up set-up without a retrace to VWAP.

A series of megaphones inside megaphones across 50 would imply that oil is turning the inverse head and shoulders on the chart into either an inverse head and shoulders with a triangle right shoulder or a large triangle that will eventually break out downwards.

The inverse H&S with a triangle right shoulder is more likely, and would lead to a large move up on breakout.

QQQ Bounce

QQQ Just Bounced a Second Time Off the Bottom of its Blue Rising Megaphone

QQQ Bounced a Second Time Off the Bottom of its Blue Rising Megaphone

QQQ bounced a second time off the bottom of its blue rising megaphone on Friday. That’s fussy trading.

A genuine breakout through 141 means another new high. Otherwise QQQ is stalling, forming something like a triangle before the trip to the red rising wedge bottom, a bounce there, and breakdown to at least the mandatory retrace level of 105-106.

Gold Textbook Triangle

The Blue Megaphone and Pink Rising Megaphone Lock Gold Into a Textbook Triangle Scenario

The Blue Megaphone and Pink Rising Megaphone Lock Gold Into a Textbook Triangle Scenario

Between the pink rising megaphone and blue megaphone, trading formation rules now pretty much lock gold into a textbook megaphone-inside-megaphone triangle scenario.

An upwards breakout from the red triangle would be an upwards breakout from an inverse head and shoulders bottom with a triangle right shoulder.  The technical inverse H&S target would be at least 1800 but the long move sideways would imply a new all-time high for gold.

Gold Long-Term Rising Megaphone

Gold Long-Term Rising Megaphone

An upwards breakout would usually mean gold was extending its long-term rising megaphone (blue in chart above).

A downwards breakout, which is more likely, would target the 700s and likely lower in the course of forming a bottom.  A downwards breakout would complete the blue-rising megaphone with a retrace to its bottom.

QQQ is Trying to Break Down

QQQ is Trying to Break Down Through Its Orange Megaphone VWAP and Light Blue Megaphone Top

QQQ is Trying to Break Down Through Its Orange Megaphone VWAP and Light Blue Megaphone Top

QQQ is trying to break out through its orange megaphone VWAP for a trip to the bottom of the red rising wedge (green scenario).

If opex trading holds the line here, expect another surge to new all-time highs to complete a cop.  The faster the top, the more likely QQQ is to reverse at the light blue megaphone VWAP for a huge move up.

The slower and bigger the top, the more likely QQQ is to go for the light blue megaphone bottom.