Gold is Setting Up a Swing to its Megaphone Top

Gold Elected to Bottom in the Critical Decision Wave of its Red Price Channel and is Setting Up a Move to the Blue Megaphone Top

Gold Elected to Bottom in the Critical Decision Wave of its Red Price Channel and is Setting Up a Move to the Blue Megaphone Top

Gold formed a price channel (red) on its move down from its April high and elected to form a bottom in the critical decision wave of the price channel.

Gold is now breaking out of that price channel as it forms either an inverse head and shoulders (green scenario) or megaphone (purple scenario) bottom for a swing to the top of the blue megaphone.

That swing could put in the top before a move down into the 700s, or gold could stay stuck in the blue megaphone for a while longer as it forms a big triangle between 1400ish and the 1050ish low.

I posted the long-term gold scenarios here.

Gold Tell

Gold Just Gave a Tell that it's Likely to Keep Megaphoning Across 1250

Gold Just Gave a Tell that it’s Likely to Keep Megaphoning Across 1250

Gold just tagged the bottom of its red rising megaphone and may break the bottom by a bit. That means gold just ruined its chances of forming a proper head and shoulders top inside the red rising megaphone.

That would usually mean gold is settling in for extended megaphoning across 1250, and that would usually mean a triangle is forming (green scenario).

The purple scenario is gold abandoning the red rising megaphone to form a simple or complex head and shoulders top across 1250 for the move up from the December 2016 low.  That would usually set up a crash to the bottom of the big navy blue megaphone.

The purple scenario is unlikely, but if you see it, that crash into the 700s  would be a strong set-up for a fast move to at least the navy blue megaphone VWAP and most likely its top.

Gold Needs a New High for its Rising Megaphone

Gold is at its Blue Megaphone Bottom & Needs a New High in its Red Rising Megaphone

Gold is at its Blue Megaphone Bottom & Needs a New High in its Red Rising Megaphone

Gold needs a retest of its July 2016 high for the prolonged triangle it’s forming on the daily chart.

And right now it’s at its blue megaphone bottom and needs a new high to form a head and shoulders top on its red rising megaphone.

 

GDX Inverse H&S Targets at Least 50

GDX Inverse Head and Shoulders

GDX is Forming an Inverse H&S Bottom on the Right Shoulder of an Inverse H&S

GDX is forming a large inverse head and shoulders bottom on its move down from its 2011 high (orange neckline).

Right now it’s working on the right shoulder of the inverse H&S, which appears to be forming an inverse H&S bottom of its own with a likely triangle right shoulder.

GDX could break out through its red neckline for a quick slice through its orange neckline to head straight for its minimum target of 50.  Or it could complete a triangle right shoulder at the red neckline and then a larger triangle right shoulder at the orange neckline before breaking out.

The inverse H&S target of 50 is just above the VWAP of the megaphone top GDX formed between September of 2009 and 2011.  GDX needs a retrace to at least that megaphone VWAP, where it could bog down for years.

Or GDX could put in some kind of fast continuation pattern at VWAP before heading up to new all-time highs.  The purple scenario is a fast slice up through the H&S necklines to a Sornette melt-up set-up at VWAP.

The green scenario is more likely.