The chart above is the fast top scenario from Friday’s open. If QQQ hadn’t bogged down at 144 for the last four hours of the trading day, QQQ would likely be crashing now.
Instead, QQQ’s stall on Friday means it can’t complete a head and shoulders top here inside the blue rising megaphone. It could still complete a H&S top across the blue rising megaphone bottom (pink scenario), but that scenario is so rare I used to think it didn’t exist.
Friday’s stall means QQQ is a strong favorite to put in a higher high outside the blue rising megaphone if it breaks out of the megaphone here (purple scenario). Otherwise, QQQ should continue melting up the blue rising megaphone, typically forming a rising wedge or rising megaphone extension, until it forms a H&S somewhere near the top of the red megaphone.
But if anything can trigger the rare pink scenario, it would be something like a surprise FOMC announcement, so you can’t get too smug about long positions.