Neely Set-Up on T for Return to All-Time High

AT&T has a Neely Crash Set-Up for a Return to the All-Time High

AT&T has a Neely Crash Set-Up for a Return to the All-Time High

T followed up on its 2002 crash with a partial retrace and a retest of the crash low in 2008. That is one of my favorite Neely set-ups for a return to the all-time high.

T formed a megaphone top (red) on its partial retrace and now it is bogged down at that megaphone VWAP.  It looks like it’s forming a triangle there, but that could morph into any kind of consolidation you can think of.

Once T breaks out from the VWAP consolidation, the next target is the all-time high near the megaphone top.

Long-Term Neely Set-Up on X

X's Crash, Partial Retrace, and Return to Crash Low is a Neely Set-Up for a Big Move Up

X’s Crash, Partial Retrace, and Return to Crash Low is a Neely Set-Up for a Big Move Up

X is trying to put in an island bottom just below VWAP of the purple megaphone.  A breakout from that island bottom through VWAP would set up a move to the megaphone top.

After a stab at VWAP from the top, a breakout from the purple megaphone would target roughly the all-time high, depending on exactly how long it takes for everything to play out.

The long-term chart is also one of my favorite Neely set-ups–a crash, followed by a partial retrace and extended topping, followed by a return to the crash low.  Next target tends to be the pre-crash high.

X Appears to be Putting in a Beautiful Rounded Bottom Just Below Its Gap Down and Purple Megaphone VWAP

X Appears to be Putting in a Beautiful Rounded Island Bottom Just Below Its Gap Down and Purple Megaphone VWAP

XLK Sornette Melt-Up Going Vertical

XLK is in a Megaphone 5th Wave Melt-Up and Sornette Bubble Melt-Up

XLK is in a Megaphone 5th Wave Melt-Up and Sornette Bubble Melt-Up

XLK is in a perfect Sornette bubble melt-up going vertical now.  It’s also in a megaphone 5th wave melt-up.  These are the kinds of melt-ups where right at the top everyone feels like it’s going to last forever.

XLK is just reaching the top of the red megaphone.  This move is not going to turn with an exact touch on the top.  It will break through that top and put in a topping pattern before a reversal to at least the red megaphone VWAP and almost certainly at least a retest of the August 2015 low.

I already know about earnings.  Nobody needs to explain to me why XLK can’t possibly crash.  I’m just showing you the chart.  XLK could easily get going on another bigger, faster, better melt-up after the pullback.

And again, don’t try to short at the megaphone top.  XLK could climb that top for months or put a big topping pattern up there that could murder your bankroll. Often we’d see a tall, thin rising wedge once the price is moving straight up, and a break-out from that would tend to be a great short.

AMZN Rising Wedge

A Super-Extended Move is a Neely Tell

AMZN is Now Coloring in the Top Third of the Red Rising Wedge

AMZN is Now Coloring in the Top Third of the Red Rising Wedge – A Neely Tell of a Major Top

AMZN is now coloring in the top third of the red rising wedge. That represents a super extended move and is a Neely tell of a major top forming.

AMZN could continue moving up the rising wedge, extending it into its very tip.  Or it could start a small fast megaphone inside the wedge to work the price to the wedge bottom before breakout into a crash from here.

Or it could extend the rising wedge into its tip then crash to the implied price channel bottom and make a new high from there before collapsing to the wedge bottom.

The first technical target for a correction is the rising wedge bottom at roughly 500.  Ultimately AMZN has to work its way back to the bottom of the purple rising megaphone at 100 as well.  But the route to that target could be very complicated and even include a new all-time high from 500 en route.

Unless some disaster is about to befall AMZN (like an antitrust suit and break-up), the most likely scenario is a drop to roughly the rising wedge bottom to establish a new megaphone trading range across roughly 600.  Some years down the road, from a new high, that megaphone could include a drop to 100.