The Dow has been inching higher but has been unable to reach the major resistance area that we have outlined at the 16000 level. Many markets have reached a temporary high this week and the next two weeks will now become interesting.
The fact that the Dow has backed off to some extent and has been unable to blast through to a good isolated spike high, remains encouraging for the long-term.Martin Armstrong
Part I of this article describes the different types of real vs. false breakouts, and the kinds of situations in which betting breakouts is profitable.
Part II of this article describes the differences in the price action in real vs. fake breakouts, so that you can identify them in real time.
This article describes how to actually trade a breakout to maximize your chances of a winning trade.
To start, here’s a long quote from Reminiscences of a Stock Operator, because the topic deserves it. The quote is followed by my own notes and advice.
“Monetary policy cannot create real economic growth.”
Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank, Wednesday, June 26, 2013
The underlying cause of the crash will be found in the preceding months and years, in the progressively increasing build-up of market cooperativity… A crash has fundamentally an endogenous, or internal, origin…
Didier Sornette, Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003