ES Critical Decision Point

ES has Reached the Top of its Blue Rising Megaphone and Rose Megaphone - Continuing Up From Here would Imply a Bigger Drop After

ES has Reached the Top of its Blue Rising Megaphone and Rose Megaphone – Continuing Up From Here would Imply a Bigger Drop After

ES has reached the top of its blue rising megaphone and rose megaphone. The rose megaphone requires a pullback to its VWAP (volume-weighted average price) at 2150 to be legal for a breakout upwards.

The orange rising megaphone also requires a pullback after completion to 2150.  The blue rising megaphone eventually requires a pullback to 1960.

This is one of those spots where ES either has to stop for a quick immediate dip to 2150 (purple scenario) that would imply another new high after the dip or it’s going to break through those formation tops and put in a top that requires a much bigger pullback (green scenario).

21 Comments (To enlarge images, right click on image & then click "view image") → ES Critical Decision Point

  1. ewtnewbie

    Look at the 60-min chart of the cash market. Here is what I see:
    1) 2301 to 2367 was the 1-2 waves, and this push to 2351 is most or all of wave 3. Ergo, we are likely in w4 and stalling around here looking for a push down to 2300 maximum, but 2320 above the open gap most likely.
    2) if we do “bottom” at 2320ish, expect 40 plus points in the final wave setting up negative divergences on the RSI and MACD when compared to 2351 (or ultimate w3 top) peak.
    3) Fib analysis of a measuring gap at 2320 says that to equal the 2267 w2 low on wave 3, we should tag 2370, hence my concern that w3 isn’t immediately over.
    4) Fib analysis of that same gap compared to the first low near 2250, points to a final high of 2390 (70 points below the gap, 70 points above).
    Have a great long weekend everyone.

  2. ewtnewbie

    This “tax reform” framework from the Prez must be SPECTACULAR given the run up we’ve had. Corporations will make more money than has EVER been QE’d before! Wonder if anybody in the working world will see it, or just the corporations? LOL

        1. ewtnewbie

          Still want to see VPOC 2335 tagged as a start, but agree that your TA makes sense. Watch for a break, re-entry and steamroller over shorts that traded the breakdown. There are so many naked VPOC below is from this run. 2313 is my favorite target.

              1. ewtnewbie

                ES always a good way to play swings if it doesn’t lock you out of day trading. You can even go ESM rather than ESH if you think the move will last past 3/17/17 export of ESH.

                Can’t read link as I am on phone and teaching. I’ll check later.

            1. ewtnewbie

              I have had 2400 on the radar since the 1800-2100 consolidation followed by a breakout. Since the market seems to be in a hurry to get there, I’m not going to stand in it’s way! Glad you see 2335 VPOC. There is also 2313 and 2304 naked below that should be tagged to repair, but I’m not holding my breath.

  3. ewtnewbie

    I believe that pattern on a 15-min chart is called “buyers shut off” when we drop multiple candles in a single swipe. This is more “auction theory” in that buyers finally said, enough. too high. can’t buy it here. “any” seller then can push price downward.

    Moe, exact touches on trendlines are bad things in your systems as that means little guy trading and if you pierce lines, form MP or H&S at/around those lines, that is more indicative of larger money make decisions? Right?


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