The 10-year t-note has been working on a megaphone right shoulder for a potential inverse head and shoulders that began forming December 1. Now it is back at the inverse H&S neckline.
A quick pullback here to the right shoulder VWAP (volume-weighted average price) at roughly 124-23 would set up a breakout from the inverse H&S with a target of roughly 129 (green scenario).
A break through the neckline without a pullback first (purple scenario) would usually stall out quickly and the 10-year would form a topping formation at the neckline. That would typically lead to a plunge to the right shoulder megaphone bottom for a retest of the low and possibly a new low.
That would be a plunge to buy, because the t-note would just have reached the low point of a larger megaphone bottom en route to a higher target.