Oil is trying to confirm a new price channel (red in chart above). If the channel confirms, oil will be in its critical decision wave for starting a bottom vs breaking out into a melt-down.
The green and purple scenarios would be pretty much the same as in this daily chart from a few days ago. The green scenario could bog down at the red megaphone VWAP to form a triangle right shoulder instead of heading straight up through VWAP to the megaphone top.
The longer oil is stuck moving across 50, the bigger the potential move after it finally breaks out. There’s a long-term Neely set-up for a move back to oil’s all-time high so I expect the churning across 50 to last a while.