QQQ Bounce

QQQ Just Bounced a Second Time Off the Bottom of its Blue Rising Megaphone

QQQ Bounced a Second Time Off the Bottom of its Blue Rising Megaphone

QQQ bounced a second time off the bottom of its blue rising megaphone on Friday. That’s fussy trading.

A genuine breakout through 141 means another new high. Otherwise QQQ is stalling, forming something like a triangle before the trip to the red rising wedge bottom, a bounce there, and breakdown to at least the mandatory retrace level of 105-106.

14 Comments (To enlarge images, right click on image & then click "view image") → QQQ Bounce

    1. ewtnewbie

      I think the QQQ could still work Sam as that is what I pointed out before where QQQ was in an ABC up from the lows and needed a “new high” as the 5th wave to complete the C wave. If QQQ dies up here shortly and reverses, that short should be quite nice. JMHO.

    2. Trader-Moe

      Sam, no, QQQ is not through the megaphone VWAP so short is not dead.

      Technically, short is alive as long as QQQ doesn’t make a new high.

      But that’s a Neely set-up. I need a downwards breakout from this consolidation and then I need a downwards breakout from the big rising wedge.

    1. Trader-Moe

      John, I haven’t seen that. He hasn’t sent out a public email negating his crash call. Where did you see that?

      His crash signal on QQQ is still alive whether he called off his crash signal or not.

      And he is not outside the timing band for his crash call until the fall.

      1. mike

        this is what he sent out today:

        After months of consolidation, the S&P is again breaking to all-time new highs. While many (including myself) have warned that a major market top could occur in this region, recent evidence is suggesting a different outcome.

        First, as the S&P has advanced, Wave structure has become LESS clear (not more). That behavior is consistent with a market near the middle (not the end) of a trend!

        Second, in 35 years, I’ve never seen a major market top occur on low-volatility, low-volume and low-public interest. Every major top I’ve witnessed occurred under exactly the opposite circumstances.

        Third, from a lifetime spent studying market behavior, I know prolonged, persistent, “mildly retraced” advances frequently end with “blow-offs”!

        The attached chart shows the various stages of a typical bull market (compliments of Business Insider and Hofstra University – https://people.hofstra.edu/geotrans/eng/ch7en/conc7en/stages_in_a_bubble.html ). From decades of experience, I suspect U.S. stocks are forming the Enthusiasm / Greed phase of this bull market. If so, “Delusional” & “New Paradigm” thinking are just around the corner. Those phases typicall ignite a euphoric “blow-off” phase.

        If the dangerous environment I just described is about to begin, “naked Long” and “naked Short” positions in stocks, ETF’s or Futures will be dangerous. As manager of the NEoWave Equity Fund (and advisor to all NEoWave Trading services), I’ll avoid all such instruments until this Manic period is over. Instead, I’ll look to employ and recommend Options, which are ideally suited for “wild” environments. Options allow us to maintain full control of risk while potentially profiting from price action and premium expansion in both directions. Best of all, Options can be held without the need for precise stops.

        Make sure you are ready for the S&P’s volatile conditions expected later this year. If you are not a member of our team, click the link below to join…

  1. ewtnewbie

    How about a triangle RS of the H&S, leading to a fairly certain breakdown from the H&S formation (vs. a MP RS leading to a new high)? Seems like the right formation in the right place, doesn’t it?

    Thanks for all you do Moe. you rock.


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