QQQ is working on a rising wedge top (navy blue) on a price channel top (blue) for a large rising wedge top (red) that it’s been working on for almost a year.
Once an extended rising wedge breaks out downwards, the move down is usually fast.
The red rising wedge is a topping pattern for this wave up within the navy blue and orange megaphones in the long-term chart above.
The red rising wedge is also completing the head of a head and shoulders top for the silver rising megaphone. That H&S top is a strong favorite to break the price out of the silver rising megaphone to at least the bottom of the blue rising megaphone.
The bottom of the blue rising megaphone will be a long-term critical decision point.
QQQ could bounce off the bottom to take out the high of the right shoulder of the silver rising megaphone’s H&S, turning that right shoulder into a megaphone. A megaphone in this spot would likely launch another interior megaphone across the navy megaphone VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) to put a big continuation triangle in the blue rising megaphone for a move to new highs (purple scenario).
The green scenario represents a retrace to the orange megaphone VWAP to complete it before taking QQQ down to the navy megaphone bottom and breaking it out of the blue rising megaphone.
QQQ would then retrace to the navy megaphone VWAP and blue rising megaphone bottom for the big decision on whether to put in a trip to another new high vs crash to the blue rising megaphone bottom.