SPY Price Channel Likely Top

SPY's Pink Price Channel Set Up in 2016 but Failed to Break Out When It was Supposed to in December

SPY’s Pink Price Channel Set Up in 2016 but Failed to Break Out When It was Supposed to in December

SPY confirmed the pink price channel on November 21, 2016 when it broke out past the previous channel high on August 23, 2016.  SPY was then in its critical decision wave for the channel.  That’s where the price either sets up a breakout into a melt-up or starts a top.

What SPY did was tag the channel top, pull back a little, and then fail to break out decisively (a breakout within a melt-up set-up would have looked like the purple scenario).

You often see this when the channel is forming a rising wedge (green scenario) or rising megaphone (orange scenario) top across the price channel top.  The rising megaphone scenario is the favorite.

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